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	<title>Macsmind - Politics, Culture and Breaking News and the 2012 Presidential Election! &#187; Poll Juice</title>
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		<title>A Confused Electorate</title>
		<link>http://macsmind.com/wordpress/2008/11/a-confused-electorate/</link>
		<comments>http://macsmind.com/wordpress/2008/11/a-confused-electorate/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 02:19:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MacRanger</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poll Juice]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://macsmind.com/wordpress/?p=3857</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Another &#8220;juiced poll&#8221; from CNN: &#8221; It was one of John McCain&#8217;s closing arguments: &#8220;We&#8217;re getting a glimpse of what one-party rule would look like under Obama, Pelosi, and Reid. Apparently it starts with lowering our defenses and raising our taxes,&#8221; the Republican presidential nominee said repeatedly on the campaign trail in the final weeks [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another &#8220;<a href="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/11/poll-finds-most-americans-welcome-dem-control/">juiced poll</a>&#8221; from CNN:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8221; It was one of John McCain&#8217;s closing arguments: &#8220;We&#8217;re getting a glimpse of what one-party rule would look like under Obama, Pelosi, and Reid. Apparently it starts with lowering our defenses and raising our taxes,&#8221; the Republican presidential nominee said repeatedly on the campaign trail in the final weeks leading up to Election Day.</p>
<p>But a new national poll suggests why a majority of voters didn&#8217;t seem to buy that argument, as Barack Obama beat McCain in the presidential election and the Democrats made major gains in both the House, under Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate, under Majority Leader Harry Reid.</p>
<p>In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Tuesday, 59 percent of those questioned said Democratic control of both the executive and legislative branches will be good for the country, compared with 38 percent saying such one-party control will be bad.</p>
<p>&#8220;That much good will from the public opens a window of opportunity for the Democrats,&#8221; said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. &#8220;But the public expects results, and may not listen to excuses for very long if a Democratic Congress and a Democratic White House can&#8217;t get their act together in time.&#8221;</p>
<p>The poll also indicates that the public has a positive view of the Democratic Party, with 62 percent saying they have a favorable opinion and 31 percent an unfavorable opinion of the party. For the Republicans, a majority, 54 percent, said they have an unfavorable view of the GOP while 38 percent hold a positive view.</p>
<p>&#8220;The public has a positive view of the Democratic Party while the GOP &#8216;brand&#8217; is hurting,&#8221; Holland said. &#8220;Overall views of the Democratic Party have gone from 53 percent favorable in October to 62 percent favorable now; the GOP overall has seen a 5-point drop in its favorable rating.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Of course is is the same 38/27 percent sample in favor of Democrats that we saw throughout the election cycle.   Fact is that it doesn&#8217;t jive with numbers elsewhere.</p>
<p>For instance Rasmussen&#8217;s <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot">poll</a> found that:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;If given the choice, 43% of voters would choose their district’s Democratic candidate, while 41% would choose the Republican candidate. That’s the first post-election edition of the generic Congressional ballot and it’s the most competitive the Republicans have been in a couple of years. In the week leading up to Election Day, the Democrats held a six point advantage.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Note the CNN stays away from the fact that polls show congressional approval at historic lows, and again from Rasmussen just a month before the election:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;A Rasmussen survey conducted Oct. 2 found that 59% agreed with the sentiment expressed by Reagan in his first inaugural address: &#8220;Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.&#8221; Just 28% disagreed with this sentiment. That survey also found that 44% of Obama voters agreed with Reagan&#8217;s assessment (40% did not). And McCain voters overwhelmingly supported the Gipper.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Which means that we have more than 62 million really confused people right now who voted mostly from their emotions than from intellect.   This isn&#8217;t at all to say they were <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/53461/Daily-Mirror-on-George-Bushs-Reelection">stupid</a>, but that as many have noted we simply didn&#8217;t communicate clear conservative principles in a time of crisis.</p>
<p>As the Obama administration begins it&#8217;s liberal agenda it&#8217;s going to be rapidly clear to Americans that they made the emotional but not intelligent choice.   The polls show that they know that thus Obama and the Democrats in congress are far from beginning on a mandate,  they&#8217;re on probation.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Newsweak Poll Smackdown</title>
		<link>http://macsmind.com/wordpress/2008/10/newsweak-poll-smackdown/</link>
		<comments>http://macsmind.com/wordpress/2008/10/newsweak-poll-smackdown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:40:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MacRanger</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2008 Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Election 2008]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poll Juice]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://macsmind.com/wordpress/?p=3684</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jim Geraghty rips the newest Newsweak Poll a new one. &#8220;Just to clarify&#8230; You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. (I&#8217;m a bit skeptical, but for now, for the sake of argument, I&#8217;ll accept your assertion that PUMAs are extinct.) You have McCain winning independents by [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODIxNWRlOWNiN2Q0MTkxNTU0Yjg2MDY0OWU3M2I2YWE">Jim Geraghty</a> rips the newest <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337">Newsweak Poll</a> a new one.  </p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Just to clarify&#8230; </p>
<p>You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. (I&#8217;m a bit skeptical, but for now, for the sake of argument, I&#8217;ll accept your assertion that PUMAs are extinct.) You have McCain winning independents by 2 percent, 45 to 43.</p>
<p>And this adds up to an 11-percent Obama lead in your latest poll.</p>
<p>We are to believe that McCain is losing among women by 9 percent, but losing among men by 14 percent.</p>
<p>We are to believe that the Hillary voters are lining up behind Obama, 88 percent to 7 percent.</p>
<p>We are to believe Obama is winning 18 to 34-year-olds by 10 percent, but he is winning 45 to 64-year-olds by 16 percent.</p>
<p>We are to believe the white vote is just about even, 46 percent for Obama, 47 percent for McCain.</p>
<p>And we are to believe the electorate in November will be 27 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, and 30 percent Independent.</p>
<p>If the over/under on the partisan breakdown on Election Day is 13 percent, I&#8217;d take the under. I wonder if anybody in Vegas would take that wager&#8230;&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Which is why I said on the MacRanger Show yesterday, don&#8217;t believe all these polls.  Besides the fuzzy math, they are all weighted nearly 2-1 Democrat.  </p>
<p>If you believe the polls, it&#8217;s Obama in a landslide, Republicans might as well stay home and suck their thumbs.  They&#8217;re designed to give that appearance.  Wake up folks.</p>
<p>The conclusion?  SHOW UP GOP on election day and McCain Wins!  It&#8217;s that simple.</p>
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