Gallup has Obama up 49 to 45 today. I’ll buy that number for now, but it also has a story about how since 1952 the leader going into the conventions in 12 of 15 contests went on to eventually win. The only two were 1992 when Bill Clinton won despite being down 35-28 and 2004 when George W. Bush won after being down 47-43.

Mitt Romney was leading on August 24th, 47-46, a day prior to the start of the RNC. So if history proves right, he wins in November, or least has a 95% or greater chance.

Here’s the chart.