Well is it?

“Need a reason to believe the Affordable Care Act is starting to work? The Census Bureau just gave you a half million of them.

That’s how many young adults had health insurance in 2010, as compared to 2009, according to the official estimates. Or, to put it another way, the proportion of 18- to 24-year olds without health insurance fell, by roughly two percentage points, last year.

It’s pretty remarkable, given what was happening in the rest of the population. For every other group of non-elderly adults, from 35 through 64 years of age, the proportion without health insurance increased. (See the graph above.)

You expect that sort of data, given economic conditions: When people lose jobs, they also lose access to employer-sponsored insurance. When their incomes fall or their debts rise, they have a harder time keeping up with premiums.

But then why aren’t 18- to 24-year-olds suffering the same fate? What makes them so special?

Nobody can be certain right now. Health insurance estimates are famously quirky and these data frequently mask critical information. But, as noted yesterday, the circumstantial evidence suggests, very strongly, that the Affordable Care Act is the primary factor.

Remember, one of the first provisions to take effect was a requirement that insurers allow young adults, up to age 26, to stay on their parents’ policies if employer-sponsored insurance is not available. Even though that requirement didn’t kick in until the fall, several insurers began offering such coverage earlier, in anticipation of the new rule. Media reports, like this one from Kaiser Health News, have suggested large numbers of young people are signing up for the newly available coverage, even more quickly than the government had anticipated.”

Ok, you can stop the presses right there. In fact here.

“Historically, economic downturns coincide with increases in the number of uninsured, as people lose their jobs and, thanks to the design of our health care system, their insurance coverage. So, the unchanged number of uninsured masks what actually happened: Roughly 810,000 middle-aged adults, those ages 45 to 64, were likely let go from their jobs, didn’t yet qualify for Medicare, and ended up uninsured. Meanwhile, some 494,000 young adults, those ages 18 to 25, gained coverage, which seems to point to the ACA provision allowing children to stay on their parents’ plans until age 26 that went into effect in the fall of 2010. Of course, there may be other explanations, but the simplest explanation is likely the right one.”

So the entirety of the increase is mostly likely due to the fact that young people can live longer at home with their parents. So it could be said that Obamacare did one thing, it increased the number of deadbeat young people.

But here are some other numbers because of Obamacare.

According to information I gathered the average health insurance policy has increased 46 percent since 2010 as insurers get ready to pass on the added cost of providing insurance to 26 year old kids still at home, no preexisting condition exclusions, and the like. Subsequently the numbers of those over 26 who have had individual policies and even some of them within group policies have had to cancel their insurance because it’s become too expensive.

Want more, how about this?

“Aetna, one of the nation’s largest health insurers, said the extra benefits forced it to seek rate increases for new individual plans of 5.4% to 7.4% in California and 5.5% to 6.8% in Nevada after Sept. 23. Similar steps are planned across the country, according to Aetna.

Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon said the cost of providing additional benefits under the health law will account on average for 3.4 percentage points of a 17.1% premium rise for a small-employer health plan. It asked regulators last month to approve the increase.

In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Celtic Insurance Co. says half of the 18% increase it is seeking comes from complying with health-law mandates.”

Of course there are the 1472 waivers on Obamacare the Obama administration has issued in the last year or so.

If this means that Obamacare is “winning” then it’s the Charlie Sheen kind of winning.