16 Dec
Posted by MacRanger as News
“From NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** As bad as it gets? Here’s the clear conclusion from our new NBC/WSJ poll: If the current political environment for President Obama has hit rock bottom, then his prospects for re-election are quite good. If it hasn’t, then watch out. Despite all the bad news the White House has endured over the past several months — an unemployment rate near 10%, the BP spill, the midterm results — the president’s standing has remained steady. His job-approval rating stands at 45% (which isn’t far off from where it was a year ago, when it was 47%); his economic handling is at 42% (same as it was a year ago); and 72% say they like Obama personally, even if they don’t like his policies. What’s more, in potential 2012 match-ups, he bests Romney by seven points (47%-40%), Palin by 22 points (55%-33%), and a relatively generic candidate like John Thune by 20 points (47%-27%). Of course, Thune and Romney both hold him under 50%.
*** What’s benefiting Obama: Two things appear to be benefiting Obama. The first is his strong base: 87% of African Americans, 76% of Democrats, and 53% of Latinos approve of his job. It’s worth noting, however, that Obama’s numbers among Dems have dropped since cutting his tax deal with the Republicans (from 82% last month to 76% now). But NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) sees the slight erosion as a flesh wound. (Those same Dems who move away from the president in the job rating question come back to Obama when matched up against the 2012 Republicans.) The second thing benefiting Obama is that an overwhelming number of Americans find him likeable. He gets his highest marks in the poll for having a strong family and family values (74% give him a high rating here), being easygoing and likeable (68%), being inspirational and exciting (51%), and having strong leadership qualities (49%). His lowest marks come on the professional side: being a good commander-in-chief (41%), achieving his goals (33%), uniting the country (30%), and changing Washington (24%). Bottom line: The jury’s still out on whether the president is going to be successful or not, as over 40% tell us it’s STILL too soon to judge what kind of president Obama is going to be.
Of course the NBC/WSJ poll is – you guessed it – heavily weighed with both African American Democrats – nearly 40-31, hugely out of sync with Gallup and other polls, and even the exit polling of the midterms In other words it’s bull crap.
I requested and received a copy of the total poll (link) and reading you can come with the notion that this poll was commissioned simply to give Obama a positive light, but in fact none exist. In fact even CNN hints at a discrepancy.
“Obama’s advantage over Palin in the poll is larger than in other recent surveys. The president was up 12 points over Palin in a hypothetical 2012 matchup poll by McClatchy-Marist conducted earlier this month, and he led Palin by eight points in surveys from CNN/Opinion Research Corporation and from Quinnipiac University that were conducted last month.”
But let’s get to the point of the matter. Obama’s unweighed approval is about 40-41. In fact according to Rassmussen Reports Obama has had an overall negative rating since June of 2009. That’s significant because it hasn’t a positive trend in in. Since June of 2009 Obama has had what his defenders would say some pretty good achievements. But none of them gave him much more than a 3 point jump which dissipated within days.
Already I’m told the GOP plans their 2012 election theme on Obama as a man totally in over his head, distracted, confused. For instance his bizarre podium switch with Clinton last friday, where he said – in so many words – that getting to a party was more important than working on extending tax breaks for millions of Americans.
No, despite what Todd or other liberal defender would like to think Obama is in big trouble and not likely to revive in time for the 2012 election.
Top Stories in the Blogosphere News
Microsoft Office 2008 for Mac. Starting at just $149.95 with free shipping.
The Commander in Chief at Work!
Reading List
Most Popular Posts
RSS feed for comments on this post · TrackBack URI
Leave a reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.