Sean Trende:

“So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a “V”-shaped recovery and President Obama’s job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

Consider that Democrats typically lead in the generic ballot, even if they do not gain control of Congress. In 2004, for example, Democrats led Republicans in 63 out of 72 generic ballot tests taken that year. Yet Republicans picked up a handful of seats in 2004 and won the popular vote by three points.

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone – one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely.” The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.”

I would take issue with Sean’s point about the losses being minimal if the economy gets better and Obama’s numbers improve. First, the economy could improve – by the way not by anything Obama did but by the natural cycle, and Obama’s numbers – along with democrats – will likely stay south. Fact is that I think most are wrong to tie the low numbers purely on public sentiment about the economy, right/wrong direction etc. It’s more the American public has had enough of Barack Obama and the Democrats shoving their will down their throats over the last year or so and the break is irreconcilable.

I’ve not seen this widespread kind of anger towards one party in all my nearly 40 years of paying attention to politics. No mater what happens, it’s going to be a blood bath for Dems in November, and they have no one to blame except their arrogant selves.