While still not cold.

“Democrats are mourning the personal loss of their colleague Rep. John Murtha, but his death today at age 77 is doubly troubling for the party that will have to defend his seat in an upcoming special election.

Immediately following the news of his death, election analysts rated the race as competitive for the GOP.

While Murtha has held the seat since 1974 with few re-election scares, the Johnstown-area district outside of Pittsburgh has right-leaning roots, and a special election contest will be targeted by House Republicans. With Murtha’s death, Democrats now control the House by a 256-178 margin.

In the 2008 presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) won the district by a narrow 1,000 vote margin against President Barack Obama. It was the only district in the nation, however, that voted Democratic in the 2004 presidential race that was carried by McCain four years later.

Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell must set a date for a special election within the next ten days, according to state law. A likely date is May 18, when the state’s primary elections will take place.

The House Democratic campaign operation is in better shape financially to wage a costly special election battle against their Republican counterparts, with a five-to-one cash on hand advantage.

But first they will have to find the kind of centrist Democrat who can compete in a district with conservative leanings. While Murtha was closely allied with liberal lawmakers, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he did not share their progressive leanings. He was known for championing defense spending and was socially conservative on matters including abortion.”

The fallout, Charlie Cook:

“Today, western Pennsylvanians mourn the passing of one of their most influential representatives to Congress ever. But once constituents come to terms with the loss of Democratic Rep. John Murtha and his towering seniority, their attention will turn to a special election to choose their first new House member since 1974. That February, the special election that brought Murtha to Congress was an early sign of President Nixon’s weakness. Now, this seat becomes the 50th Democratic seat in the “Lean” or “Toss Up” columns.”

Ride the wave!

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