She’ll go kicking and screaming, but she just might go.

“It may be too soon to tell if Nancy Pelosi (right) will lose her role as speaker. Also pictured: Sen. Harry Reid.
Photo: AP

A congressional leader makes a startling statement. The media jump on it, causing a firestorm. The leader first fans the flames and then tries to put them out. Speculation rises that the leader’s colleagues are thinking about mounting a challenge.

Nancy Pelosi in 2009? Or Newt Gingrich in 1998? Or Trent Lott in 2002?

While it is awfully early to be predicting that House Speaker Pelosi (D-Calif.) will face a leadership challenge because of her handling of “torture-gate,” conditions are starting to gel for the good old-fashioned congressional coup. Here are five factors that ultimately lead to a coup:

1. A leadership rival: Gingrich (R-Ga.) had Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas). Lott (R-Miss.) had Sen. Don Nickles (R-Okla.). And Pelosi has Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). While the majority leader’s office has explicitly told me that he won’t ever run against Pelosi (and I believe it) there is no doubt that Hoyer and Pelosi are rivals — and, at times, bitter rivals.

Hoyer ran against Pelosi for minority whip in 2001, and her victory made his trip to the speaker’s gavel that much more difficult. A dozen years earlier, DeLay had managed the minority whip campaign of Rep. Ed Madigan (R-Ill.), who ran against Gingrich in a race to succeed then-Rep. Dick Cheney (R-Wyo.). The relationship between DeLay and Gingrich never recovered. Over in the Senate, Nickles had long chafed under Lott’s leadership style, which frequently left him out of the loop.

2. A disaffected base: The hard part of being a leader is having to make decisions that anger your political base. Since becoming speaker, Pelosi has not been able to deliver for her liberal base. She promised that we would pull out of Iraq, but we are still in Iraq. She promised that this Congress would be the most ethical in history, but she stands by Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.).

Her base is angry because she made promises she couldn’t keep. In fact, she has faced primary opposition from Cindy Sheehan because she hasn’t been left-wing enough.”

The Politico makes point over history by reminding us of the Delay, Armey, Gingrich wars. Lots of fun back, but I don’t see the comparison here. Frankly Pelosi has and most likely will have enough support from Democrats to keep her seat.

Her continued presence is a boon to the GOP and will continue to be so as long as she keeps the gavel.

That’s most likely the reason that will get senior Dems on the Hill to oust her anyway, well in front of the 2010 midterms.