To hear lefties crow about conservatism is dead because we lost this election you would think they’ve been in power for years. But it’s been about 2 1/2 out of the last 8, and if you count congress it’s 2 1/2 out of the last 15. Hardly a dynasty.
It doesn’t stop the media from continuing the dream.
“Here’s the main thought Republicans are consoling themselves with these days: Notwithstanding President-elect Barack Obama, a nearly filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate and the largest Democratic majority in the House of Representatives since 1993, the United States is still a center-right country. Sure, voters may be angry with Republicans now, but eventually, as the Bush years recede and the GOP modernizes its brand, a basically right-tilting electorate will come back home. Or, in the words of the animated rock band the Gorillaz, “I’m useless, but not for long/The future is comin’ on.”
Thus Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review, in Outlook last week: The United States “is indeed, as conservatives have been insisting in recent days, a center-right country.” On election night, former Bush guru Karl Rove opined on Fox News, “Barack Obama understands this is a center-right country, and he smartly and wisely ran a campaign that emphasized it.” And it’s not just conservative pundits and operatives singing this song. Take Newsweek editor Jon Meacham, who wrote an Oct. 27 cover essay entitled “America the Conservative,” which argued that Obama will have to “govern a center-right nation” that “is more instinctively conservative than it is liberal.”
The only problem: It isn’t true. Or at least, not anymore. If you’d asked me a year ago whether the United States is really a center-right nation, I would have said yes — after pausing for a second to contemplate the GOP’s big congressional losses in 2006. At the time, Republicans cheered each other up by assuring ourselves that the worst was over: If you were running for Congress and survived 2006, you could hold your seat forever.
Tell that to Christopher Shays. After 2006, he was the sole surviving GOP House member from all of New England, but he went down this year, 51 to 48 percent. We are now two elections into something big. This month’s drubbing is just the latest sign that the country’s political center of gravity is shifting from center-right to center-left. Republicans who fail to grasp this could be lost in the wilderness for years.
Here’s the stark reality: It is now harder for the Republican presidential candidate to get to 50.1 percent than for the Democrat. My Hoover Institution colleague David Brady and Douglas Rivers of the research firm YouGovPolimetrix have been analyzing data from online interviews with 12,000 people in both 2004 and 2008. It shows an overall shift to the Democrats of six percentage points. As they write in the forthcoming edition of Policy Review, “The decline of Republican strength occurs by having strong Republicans become weak Republicans, weak Republicans becoming independents, and independents leaning more Democratic or even becoming Democrats.” This is a portrait of an electorate moving from center-right to center-left.”
The decent of Republican winning beginning in 2006 makes no such assertion. Rassussen’s survey question just prior to the election had 59 percent of Americans agreeing with Ronald Reagan’s statement, “Government isn’t the solution to our problems, Government is the problem”.
That’s a agreement with a core conservative principle – less government. As the Republican Party lost it’s conservative core beginning in 1998, and abandoned core conservative principles in favor of populism, only then did the numbers begin to shift.
Congressional approval ratings are still at historic lows. So unless the electorate is completely daff this election – where they handed them even more democrats who can’t get the job done, it’s anyones guess what they were thinking.
But one thing is for sure, this is still a center right nation, it just needs
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