Via Khadir Taahar, in Iraq:

“If American President Obama implements his promise to withdraw from Iraq, it would be a collective catastrophe that would overwhelm all the necessities of life in our homeland. We would return to the prehistoric and dark ages and would perhaps end up worse than Somalia.

Before delving into the implications of an American withdrawal, we must reckon with a stark truth, which is the failure of the Iraqi people and their leaders since the establishment of modern Iraq in 1921, particularly a complete lack of politicians and national parties which defend the nation’s interests. It is because of our tendency toward national self-destruction that without the American umbrella and its protection – all will be lost.

Some of the catastrophes that will occur if the retreat takes place will be: a rapid collapse of State agencies and the looting of the State by political parties and thieves; an immediate war between the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution and the Sadrists [both Shiite]; and the emergence of armed tribal groups in Shiite cities engaging in gun battles with the parties. It would also result in elements of the Al-Dawa Party [the party of Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki ] fleeing the country because of their feelings of fear and vulnerability, the revolt of Shiite cities and their transformations into independent states, which will be characterized by looting, stealing and murder.

In Sunni cities, there will be conflicts and bloody wars between the Islamic parties and reformist groups, tribal organizations, Baathist groups will reappear and we will be plunged into a bloody civil war. Sunni cities will be transformed into independent areas based on tribal and party loyalties, and al-Qaeda will again return to these cities.

As far as the Kurds are concerned, they would be subject to a strict blockade by Turkey, Iran and Syria. They would receive a series of painful blows, and we would see a shrinking of Kurdish pride, the disappearance of their boastfulness and arrogance. And none of this excludes the possibility of a mass genocide carried out by Kurdish militias against Arabs, Turkmen and Christians, which would oblige Turkey to intervene and occupy the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.”

Again, Obama’s “Plan for Iraq” has disapered from the Change.gov website, but yours truly has preserved it.

“Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. Immediately upon taking office, Obama will give his Secretary of Defense and military commanders a new mission in Iraq: ending the war. The removal of our troops will be responsible and phased, directed by military commanders on the ground and done in consultation with the Iraqi government. Military experts believe we can safely redeploy combat brigades from Iraq at a pace of 1 to 2 brigades a month that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 – more than 7 years after the war began.

Under the Obama-Biden plan, a residual force will remain in Iraq and in the region to conduct targeted counter-terrorism missions against al Qaeda in Iraq and to protect American diplomatic and civilian personnel. They will not build permanent bases in Iraq, but will continue efforts to train and support the Iraqi security forces as long as Iraqi leaders move toward political reconciliation and away from sectarianism.”

Obama doesn’t give specifics on this “residual” force, but if it lines up with his campaign promises to “end the war” it won’t be large enough to quell uprisings. Much of the success of the surge thus far has been through the genius of General Patraeus. Yet some of it has also come from Al Qaeda pulling back to await the results of the election.

There is no doubt that a rapid withdraw will produce the chaos that Mr. Kitibat speaks of, and it’s most likely the reason that the Obama people have removed his cut and run policy from their website.

Let’s see how it changes now.