Folks, if we’re going to talk about whether or not the GOP will get killed, we need to look over the political terrain.¬† Perhaps the two best snapshots are the exit polls from the last two elections - the 2004 Presidential race and the 2006 midterms.

There were three major shifts that I can see in those elections: Moderates, registered independents, and Hispanic voters.

In 2004, the GOP picked up 45% of moderate voters.  John Kerry got 54%, but when the GOP started with most of the 34% of the electorate that was conservative, it was enough to win.  Kerry and the Dems started out with most of the 21% that was liberal.

In 2006, moderates made up 47% of the voter pool, compared to 20% liberals and 32% conservatives.  They went 60-38 in favor of the Dems.  In other words, it went from the GOP running respectably among moderate voters to getting their butts stomped.

The same was true for registered independents.  They constituted 26% of the electorate in 2004 and 2006.  In 2004, the split was 49-48 in favor of the Dems.  In 2006, it was 57-39.  The GOP dropped from a near-miss to getting spanked.

Finally, the Hispanic vote.  In both years it was 8% of the voting pool.  But in 2004, the GOP, with President Bush as the face of the party, they got 44% of the vote.  In 2006, when the face of the party became Tom Tancredo and Congressional Republicans repudiating President Bush on immigration, the GOP only got 30%.

It wasn’t just our people not showing up.¬† Between 2004 and 2006, the GOP lost a lot of the support in the center of the political spectrum that it had.¬† I will stipulate that immigration was not the only reason, but the hard-line that seems to be the majority position of the Congressional Republicans was no salvation.

So folks, there’s the lay of the lnds as it stood as of the 2006 mid-terms.¬† Now, will things change?¬† Probably, but let’s not kid ourselves.¬† We had Republicans show up… and a lot of moderates, Independents, and Hispanics turn away.

So, what do we plan on doing about it?