“Declining support from key constituencies has clearly contributed to the diminishing rating. Today 61 percent of Republicans say they approve ‚Äî the lowest rating ever among this group. Approval among conservatives is now at 46 percent and 42 percent among Born-Again Christians.
“Some Republican legislators have recently made statements disagreeing with actions by the administration. These statements are mirroring attitudes of many Republican voters across the nation,” said Opinion Dynamics Vice President Lawrence Shiman.”
The lack of Republican support is significant and a telling sign of how much the base is beginning to show their displeasure with the President. In fact this result represents a 6 point drop – given the margin of error – since the last poll just a few months ago. That’s a phenominal drop and cannot be attributed to anything except his push – against the tide – on the immigration bill.
Clearly – regardless of polls – the base is displeased with the administration and not only on immigration, as this isn’t the first degree of separation that has occured over the last two years.
People can blame uber right and left influences all they want but the fact remains that this administration hasn’t done itself any favors to keep the base intact. Whether it’s failing to defend it’s own (Scooter Libby), or even itself (sometimes feel like we blog defenders should have gotten a check), it really has no one to blame but itself.
Unfortunately Bush is at the lame duck/legacy stage of his term and it’s all downhill from here as far as polls go. After the (A) bill fiasco his support will be limited, although yours truly still believe that he is a good man and good leader and exactly what we need in this war on terror, and I hope that others will too. This is no time to give up the fight.
Yet there was no need to push this bill against the overwhelming public outcry in the way that it was, behind closed doors – in secret. The American public is extremely sensitive to government secrecy and believe almost to a person that policians generally could care less about what they really want.
The fact that this bill was written in secret, behind closed doors, reminded some of us of the dangers of those who believe themselves to be “gods” in the midsts of puny mortals. The reason the bill was devised in secret was because it was flawed and it’s authors knew it was flawed, but told themselves “It’s the best shot we have”. We’re only learning now just how much pork and cash promises were made to Senators to gain their votes. In the coming days we’ll learn even more about that.
Today the gods were silenced and the mortals won. Yes, we still have an immigration problem, but most of that problem came from flawed policies of the past, written by the same person who attempted to “try, try again”.
You can’t make applesause out of a cow paddy. I did what many who blogged or wrote articles on it didn’t do, I read it – both versions, and found it to be 700 plus pages of big government confusion. It simply wasn’t going to work.
All of this would have came to light if the bill would have come through normal channels of scrutiny and committee. There was no reason for it not too, EXCEPT to hide it’s flaws.
As the weeks go by from now you will see more and more media reporting on the particulars that will most likely make you wipe your brow and thank God this disaster of a bill was averted.
What is even more disconcerting is what many of us became during the discussion. Some of us – by way of name calling and labeling – simply a mirror of what we despised.
I’m glad I didn’t participate.
I said from the beginning that we need immigration reform. I’m intensely interested in this subject because not only do I live among immigrants, I am married to one. But this bill wasn’t the fix and it’s good it’s dead and gone.
No Response
shield
June 28th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
1PRAISE THE LORD it failed.
HA HA HA … kennedy made a fool of himself this week a number of times. Especially when he sang to all those illegal wetbacks in mexican.
mccain is one very over cooked goose.
And that SC senator…may very well go down in flames in his next election.
stevevvs
June 28th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
2For Harold:
Hispanics and Republicans [Ramesh Ponnuru]
President Bush made solid gains among Hispanic voters. Hispanics gave 21 percent of their votes to Bob Dole in 1996, 35 percent to Bush in 2000, and 39 to him in 2004. That is a much larger swing toward the GOP than we saw in the electorate as a whole, and supporters of the Bush approach to issues of particular concern to Hispanics can legitimately use it to strengthen their case. But they keep claiming that Bush did even better than he did‚Äîthat he got 44 percent of the Hispanic vote‚Äîand it’s just not so.
http://www.vdare.com/sailer/041205_vindication.htm
http://www.alternet.org/election04/20606/
I hope this is helpful.
stevevvs
June 28th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
3I’ve been displeased with a number of items. The abandonment of Social Security Reform, the abandonment of drilling for oil off the coast, ANWAR, and oil shale and oil sands. The Ethenal push, that has driven up the cost of anything Corn related, such as meat prices, milk (feed) chips, soda, and most food products. Not to mention we will get LESS Gas milage. The prescription drug plan that cost way more than advertized, McCain Feingold, no party discipline on spending when they were a majority, etc. I support the War, the Tax Rate Reductions, and the Judicial Nominations. Beyond that, nothing comes to mind now.
Had we had Conservative Leadership, somewhere on spending,border security,etc. I believe the Rep’s would still be in the majority today. But that was squandered by the House, Senate, and Executive leadership.
RJD
June 29th, 2007 at 3:29 am
4You guys have lost me forever. Mac, enjoy your immagration reform, when it comes in 50 years. The conservative movement is nothing but empty buzzwords, no substance and not fit for governing. Ignoring problems and empty rhetoric doesn’t make problems go away.
Enjoy your lives holed up in your gated communities as you relish your “no-compromise” approach. You fell for the old divide and conquer and now we are all going to pay the consequences. See you at president Hillary’s swearing in.
Macranger
June 29th, 2007 at 4:41 am
5RJD,
You haven’t been paying attention. Not supporting THIS bill isn’t the same as not supporting immigration reform. As I said, I’m married to an immigrant and live and work among them.
Without exception non of them, including hispanics here in SF supported the bill. In fact six of the major hispanic rights organizations didn’t support this bill.
The “no compromise” was in the mind of the senators – democrat senators I might add – who in the face of such wide dissaproval and enamoured by the spoils of big business tried to push the bill through.
We will get immigration reform, but only when the American people are included in the process and their voices will be heard.
Harold C. Hutchison
June 29th, 2007 at 5:13 am
6No, Mac, RJD is not the only one… AJ-Strata’s also of that mindset.
I’m not there yet, but believe me, I have lost a great deal of confidence in conservatism in general. You are one person who has done well, but many others – including Townhall.com have failed to do so.
The GOP will pay a price for that unless we get really lucky.
CommentGuy
June 29th, 2007 at 5:58 am
7Mac
I believe this may actually a good turn with a relatively easy way out.
I see generalized apathy by voters who perceive there in a lot of cases there is not much difference between the parties. This image is enforced by Republican light candidates in some positions.
Gang of 14 and McCain Feingold don’t help either.
Apathy has gone up over the years which resulted in the party trying to reach farther and farther into the center and maybe a little left of center of maintain it’s voter totals and diluting it’s base and causing more apathy there.
A review of voter turnout percentages shows this.
If the party were truely conservative Rudy and McCaine wouldn’t likely be in this race.
If voters perceive a true conservative and I don’t mean ultra right by that, and conservative agendas being put forward I believe voter turnout and possibly even recruitment could balance out losses of center support.
Look at the number of voter age people and you will see the registered voter count is only a small percentage of that pool.
There are plenty of conservatives who aren’t registered and even if they are many don’t vote because they see nothing to be energized about except in specific high profile instances.
The dems have just about mined their supporters for all the registered voters they can get and significant increases will be exponentially costly and difficult to obtain.
If conservative politicians grow a spine and support conservative values it could start a groundswell.
Otherwise the go along to get along concept will keep moving the party as a whole to the left because the left moves the goal posts shifting the center point farther to the left while our goal post remains firm.
Also the left has to herd the cats of so many different agendas they are ending up with a do nothing congress to show for it.
A conservative party that doesn’t have multiple factions could draw together to create a working strong party unleashed from the RINO dead weight.
stevevvs
June 29th, 2007 at 6:15 am
8I actually think, by not supporting this bill, the GOP will be better for it in 2008.
Conservatives did not kill this bill, Americans did. Americans of every stripe. Enforcement Provisions in 2006 did not make them loose their majority, run away spending did. Thousand of “Earmarks” on every bill did. Not controling spending by House, Senate, and the Executive Branch killed them. There has been no Conservative Leadership in D.C.
The American People have proven this, by soundly rejecting this C.I.R. Bill. They want the Borders Secured First. They want this never ending flow to stop. They are not anti-immigrant. The American people are anti-illegals. They are for Legal Immigration. This bill rewarded Illegal Behavior, and Continued to punish those who do it the legal way. The Illegals would be granted instant Legal Statuse, while those following the rules, continue to wait years. That is the wrong approach.
Last night I tried to post links to articles that show Bush’s support by hispanics was never 44%. But I guess your filter did not except them. AJ, is impossible to get thru too. Sorry we lost him.
Macranger
June 29th, 2007 at 6:51 am
9Steve,
Agreed. The fact is that this was a bad bill. In fact not even those involved in the work of immigration supported it. Remember over 10,000 border agents made it clear that they did not.
As you rightly said the people made their voice loud and clear on this issue and showed the politicians that they – not them – decide on the issues of this land.
CommentGuy
June 29th, 2007 at 7:00 am
10Mac and Steve
You both add to the point I made in the prior comment.
It was across the board rejection and the inside the beltway people know it even if they wont admit it.
They realize now that now matter what the political stripe they have awoken the sleeping giant.
Since true border control and rule of law tend to be center to conservative issues it may have more effect of reigning in the left than perceived damage to the right.
But just try to get someone to admit that.
retire05
June 29th, 2007 at 7:26 am
11Mac, while we were bamboozled into thinking that this bill was abour “immigration” reform, it was about one thing, and one thing only; amnesty for 12-20 million people by making them legal and then not having to deal with the “illegal” problem. Making them legal = end of problem.
Yesterday, while John Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchison were at the podium saying that the conversation about immigration reform has now been started and must be continued, placing the priority on border security and enforcement of our current laws, the Democrats are in front of the cameras saying this subject is dead during THIS administration. And what was our President saying? Was he saying “the American people have told us what they want and we will give them the border security and enforcement they are demanding”? No, he was expressing his disappointment and saying that he would now move on to the budget. Why would he ignore what Americans have been screaming at the top of their lungs for the last year? Because it was never about security and enforcement. It was always about dealing with a problem using the Beltway standard. If no one is illegal, then illegals are not a problem.
Now the MSM is reporting that this is a big problem with Republicans in the next election. Of course, they are going to say that. That was the Kennedy plan from the git-go.
Three things were achieved by the bill written by the Kennedy staff; a) the President sustains another loss (the MSM is already touting that); b) the Republicans are being represented as racists (some Democrats even accused the right of that during debate) and c) Kennedy secured more Hispanic votes for the 2008 elections.
Why is no one talking about how Democrats switched on the last cloture vote? They switched because the bill was doomed before it was ever written and Kennedy, ever the consumate politician, knew it. They switched because the bill was never meant to be passed, at least not by Democrats.
Kennedy and Reid were sitting together last night, clinking their scotch and water glasses together, saying to each other “mission accomplished”.
Harold C. Hutchison
June 29th, 2007 at 7:38 am
12Retire05…
Yeah… and the conservative, IMO, played right into their hands. We could have had a good bill in 2006. It was kileld over the “amnesty” issue. We had a bipartisan bill that was in some ways better (because it killed chain migration). This time, the issue was secrecy.
What will it be the next time there’s an attempt to fix the problem? Talk radio has now asserted a veto over the GOP. The DailyKos and HuffPo are doing the same on the left.
We’re not talking to each other or trying to solve problems. We’re shouting past each other and waiting for the first excuse to have it out. America’s in for a rough stretch until the people can grow up.
retire05
June 29th, 2007 at 7:52 am
13Harold, the fact that you equate the American voter as being childlike, shows to me that your opinion of voters is low.
I do not think that Americans are stupid. They have been voicing their opinions for over 200 years and we have wound up with a pretty good government. Yeah, there have been some bumps in the road but for the most part, the road has been a good one.
Some Republicans were sucker punched by Kennedy, Graham being one of them. His stand behind Kennedy has probably lost him his senate seat next year.
And no, not all of us are talking past each other. That seems to be a tactic of the left, not the right. Who were the first to say the conversation had to continue? Two senators from a border state. Both Republicans.
And believe me, Harold, you give way too much credit to talk radio. But then, you assume that Americans have to form their opinions from what some talk show host tells them as they certainly are too stupid to read the bill itself, right? And it really doesn’t say much for you that you reflect the talking points of Reid and Lott with the “talk radio” point.
You will have to forgive me if I have more faith in a people who were capable of overcoming the odds at Normandy Beach, putting a man on the moon, inventing the Stealth bomber and creating the greatest economy in the world. But that’s just me. Feel free to think those citizens are all lead by talk show hosts and are too stupid to make decisions on their own.
CommentGuy
June 29th, 2007 at 8:46 am
14The rejection of this bill was for good reason and across the board.
If only the extreme right was rejecting it they would have been balanced out by the center and left.
Harold and AJ were quoting polls at 20 to 30% differentials form the majority of other polls.
I believe the reaction shows which polls were valid and which were wishful hoping.
Maybe they will realize they were in the less than 30% supporters of this bill if they reflect on the outcome.
The strawman far extremes does not justify the total rejection by the public.
Again the broad based rejection concurs with most poll results.
If you examine the facts there is no other conclusion.
ivehadit
June 29th, 2007 at 8:51 am
15I am a proud Bush conservative. We owe this man and all who have served at his pleasure eternal gratitude.
What he has accomplished in his 6 years is more than has been done in the past 100 years…so you have said Mac and I concur.
Much we cannot see at the moment…
retire05
June 29th, 2007 at 9:02 am
16As county GOP chairperson, I am getting calls from Republicans who have not been active in five years. They are saying that they finally feel like the American voter has a say in what happens in the halls of Congress and that they have a voice again.
These are not your “talk show” types. They have jobs, little league games to coach, dinners and laundry to do, and basically day to day lives to lead and don’t have the time, nor the inclination, to spend their hours listening to talk radio.
But they do have the where-with-all to be able to read a bill that was readily available on the internet and to talk to others who had read it. They are not stupid, they are not easily lead and they are aware now that their voices can be heard and they are willing to become active in the party again.
When people can see no hope, they tend to give up hope. We can see that all across the world everyday. But when people see a light at the end of the tunnel, they become more willing to go into the tunnel and what they have seen is that no one special interest group or no one political party holds all the power.
Americans voted for Democrats in 2006 because they were tired of D.C. corruption and wanted that to change. They have since learned that it is business as usual in D.C. and the election changed nothing because the swamp that Pelosi promised to drain has only had the alligators replaced. It is still a swamp.
Anytime Americans get involved in their own government, it is a good thing. The idea now is to keep the momentum going and to continue to demand that our laws be enforced and that almost six years after 9-11, our borders secured. I look for that to happen.
CommentGuy
June 29th, 2007 at 9:42 am
17retire05
Goes back to support my earlier post by what you are saying.
I still submit, and the data is out there, the Dems have stretched the voter base and milked it to the max. It will be hard for them to make large percentage gains.
The opposite is true on the Rep side.
If americans found their voice and it occurs on other issues then you will see voter participation go up.
It will not be the Kos kids, they are already maxed out.
It will be the old style dems, the center and the Rep base.
High dollar specials can try to by the pot , but if voters register and participate in elections they will bring to life the one thing that politicians fear most.
retire05
June 29th, 2007 at 10:13 am
18CommentGuy, a few of us have gotten together and are trying to do an “info” email on the bills that are before the House and Senate, both on state levels and federal levels. We don’t try to sway the opinion one way or another but simply try to post the text of the bill. We ask our email list to send the info out to at least five on their email list. We provide phone numbers and ask them to voice their opinion on prospective legislation. We have no guarantee how anyone will feel about it.
We are into a thing called “awareness”. Americans tend to make the right decision when they are informed. Now I know that one of those on my email list is a die hard Hillary supporter. So what? Honest information hurts no one.
darwin
June 29th, 2007 at 10:42 am
19“America‚Äôs in for a rough stretch until the people can grow up. …”
Harold C. Hutchison
Excuse me? Try taking your own advice. Jerk
darwin
June 29th, 2007 at 10:46 am
20The dems control Congress and could easily start the work on securing our borders today. Tomorrow they could easily pass legislation requiring employers to verify the status of their workers.
They don’t want to. Hutchison and the dems are apparently on the same page. Both think the problem is so involved only reams of legislation will be able to tackle a simple problem.
Enforce the law. Immigration here is not a right.
stevevvs
June 29th, 2007 at 10:48 am
21Mac,
Here is what SHOULD have happened on 9/12.:
The President, knowing we were fighting a war against people who wear civilian clothing, and who are in every country in the world, should have anounced that, for National Security Reasons, we are going to build a Double Sided National Security berrier across our entire Southern Border, begining 9/13. We are doing this because 3,000 people per day, from every country on earth, come across this border. As a Country at war with people we can not distinguish good from bad, it is in our Nations Best Interest to do so. Additionally, we are going to immediately deploy armed National Guard Forces across BOTH Borders, to stop, by any means necissary, those trying to cross. We are going to seriously monitor our Northern Border, and if we think it’s necissary, we will begin Constuction on that border as well.
This is what Most American have expected after 9/11, and this is still what most Americans want today. That anouncement never came. In fact, we have encouraged the invasion to continue unabated.
In N.C. where I live it is of Crisis Proportions. The Schools are over crowded with Aliens. Every School has Double Wide Class rooms set up in the Front lawns, to the point where in many cases, you can no longer actually see the school! At one elementary school I go by in Charlotte on my way to work, they have just completed setting them up where the Buses parked! I have no idea where the buses will now be. In 2007, of the 5220,additional new students this year, 2,660 are “Hispanic” Four years ago Charlotte was relatively safe. Two years ago it was the 10th most dangerous city in America to live in according to FBI stats. Last year them moved up to #8!
Our MS13 gang problem is terrible, as well as other Latino Gangs. We have serial repeat Illegal Alien Drunk Drivers killing our Citizens. Some, driving the wrong way on the interstates at high speeds. All with fraudulent I.D.s. The use to get Drivers Licenses with their Mexican Metricular Cards. Now you have to have a S.S. Number. No matter, this year so far, they have found over 27,000 Licenses issued with Fraudulent S.S. numbers! And of course, they can register to VOTE on their way out of the door thanks to Motor Votor.
When are we going to get serious?
I suspect the number of “Show” Raids on employers to drop off now that the bill failed. Got to go, Take Care.
habanero
June 29th, 2007 at 11:44 am
22Let the fun begin!
Just who gets to be the dems #1 victim group?
Will the blacks stay in the #1 spot, or will the hispanics take their place?
retire05
June 29th, 2007 at 11:53 am
23Sorry, habanero, the blacks AND the Hispanics are all going to take a back seat to another group; gays. Being “gay” is the new minority.
habanero
June 29th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
24retire05
“GAY” is the dems. #1 victim for mid term elections, not national.
retire05
June 29th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
25Just wait, habanero, the closer it gets to Nov.’08, the more you will hear the left catterwalling about “gay” rights and as the defeat of the Shamnesty bill fades into memory, you will hear less and less about Hispanics from the left.
habanero
June 29th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
26Obama will keep the black issue alive. The MSM will be pushing for him to be Hillary’s VP. Hispanics will want some guarantees from her.
It was a comment out of Hillary in early 05 that gave the MSM the greenlight and started the whole illegals issue. Her comment came about the same time that a report came out showing hispanics had passed blacks as the largest minority group in the US. Hillary has already taken the first step to try and replace blacks as the #1 victim group, and the blacks didn’t like it. That’s why Obama is in the race.
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