“After a week at home with their constituents, the Senate architects of a delicate immigration compromise are increasingly convinced that they will hold together this week to pass an overhaul of the nation’s immigration laws, with momentum building behind one unifying theme: Today’s immigration system is too broken to go unaddressed.
Congress’s week-long Memorial Day recess was expected to leave the bill in tatters. But with a week of action set to begin today, the legislation’s champions say they believe that the voices of opposition, especially from conservatives, represent a small segment of public opinion. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), who led negotiations on the bill for his party, said the flood of angry calls and protests that greeted the deal two weeks ago has since receded every day.
“You just have to recognize you will get 300 calls, you’ll get conflicts at town hall meetings — all of them negative,” said Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who consulted with Kyl and hopes to carry a similar deal through the House in July. “The last few days have really turned things around.”
Public opinion polls seem to support Kyl’s contention that Americans are far more open to the deal than the voices of opposition would indicate. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released today, 52 percent of Americans said they would support a program giving illegal immigrants the right to stay and work in the United States if they pay a fine and meet other requirements. Opposition to that proposal was 44 percent.
So far, the dozen senators who cut the deal have been able to hold their compromise together. They have beaten back amendments that the group deemed to be coalition-killers, such as one to strike the bill’s temporary-worker program and another to remove its provisions to legalize the nation’s estimated 12 million illegal immigrants.
This week’s amendments are more subtle, and therefore, more threatening to the coalition.”
Well perhaps, but the real debate will begin this week. The proponents of the bill seem to want to push it through before the American people actually get a peek at what’s inside the bill, which makes polling them at this point worthless.
There will however still be a battle…
“For Republicans in the coalition, opposing such amendments will only increase the pressure they are facing at home. Over the break, Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) were booed at their state party conventions. And President Bush’s attempt to give Republicans political cover by praising the deal may have backfired. Republican opponents in the House now call the proposal the “Kennedy-Bush Amnesty” bill.
“I just know that we’ve got a tough week ahead of us,” Kyl said.”
Again, regardless of the polls, the fact is that there is substantial pushback from the base as we know that donations for the GOP across the board are down 40 percent and growing. Here on local talk radio you don’t infer from the callers that there is wide support for the bill, even a diverse and immigrant based population. In fact the polls they’re doing in South Florida are showing strong opposition to the bill from within the Latin community.
I will agree, as I’ve said all along, that the current system is broken and needs to be fixed, but this bill in its current form is not the fix. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.
Via Hot Air, the other side is a the 16 point drop in Republican support in two weeks. Again, polls are helpful, but essentially useless at this point as I doubt many of the respondents have a clue about the content of the bill. Again, let’s hope there is real debate on this and not what appears to be a rush to get it done before anyone knows what hit them.
No Response
RJD
June 4th, 2007 at 8:22 am
1Mac, you’ve lost all credibility with me now. So now its a amnesty bill. Regardless of the fact that the word amnesty has a specific meaning. Welcome to the Clintinista school of language, where what is, isn’t and what isn’t amnesty, is. I guess the next time I get a speeding ticket, I should thank the polcie officer for giving me amnesty. I respect people’s differing opinions on immigration and, if this debate were occuring 40 years ago, I may be persuaded. However, we need to face reality and make the best of a bad situation. Doing nothing about 12-15 illegals in this country is crazy. Thinking self-deportation is the answer is crazy. Laws that violate market economics lead to incredibly large compliance costs and usually lead to even more drastic messages to evade. That used to be a conservative belief but evidently, not any more.
This approach marries enforcement and rationalization of a broken system. No compromise is easy but the so-called conservative movement has gone unhinged on this. Let’s be clear, conservative opposition is nothing but a poorly disguied attempt to say deportation or nothing. Pragmatic compromise to achieve conservative policy goals, secure borders, though maybe not absolute, a more logical immigration system and a system that rewards, not punishes, work used to be the way to achieve the conservative agenda. Not now.
Ronald Reagan, the real one, not the myth that so many conservatives hold so dear, would be laughing at this argument. He’d be in favor of fixing a bad system, letting violators pay a reasonable penalty and get to work creating a better America for all, not just those of a certain ethnicity.
History has not be kind to the political party that is anti-immigrant (not I am not excusing their illegal status, I think the punishment should fit the crime). The know-nothings and their successors in the republican pary lost the Irish vote for over 100 years. The Republicans lost the vote of the Chinese over immigration. Luckily, the Italians were not well organized politically or the Republicans would still be trying to win them back.
Macranger
June 4th, 2007 at 8:43 am
2The title is simply calling it what everyone wants to call it.
The wording is meaningless. Fact is that when you don’t enforce the law, it becomes unenforceable.
That said, we agree that something needs to be done on immigration and about the “estimated” 12-15 million here.
The point is that this bill as it is isn’t it. The so-called “enforcement” provisions are an undoable sham as written.
Again, you need to read the posts. I am married to an immigrant and work with immigrants. All of which tell me that they resent – yes resent the fact that others will be given a pass where they had to work for what they have.
Again, all that “market economics” is a smoke screen to the real issues that whether or not we will fix a system that is broken, while enforcing the laws already on the books.
Harold C. Hutchison
June 4th, 2007 at 11:39 am
3Mac, the other problem that the GOP faces is that the position of the “base” does not seem to be popular among the general public. 52-44 is still a majority. Other polls have shown wider margins. Even Rasmussen showed that 65% favored the general provisions of the Senate bill.
The general direction of what the American public wants seems to be clear. The real question is figuring out how to make it work. This bill may not be it, but making it work is going to be long, tough, and there will be a Republican civil war over it.
ivehadit
June 4th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
4Harold, what do you think will be the consequences of the republican civil war?
Personally, I am sick of all who are demanding that they have the power to dictate to the country and to the President…and their ingratitude to this President is astounding to me.
patrick neid
June 4th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
5well, it appears some of us are falling into the “statistics don’t lie, people do”.
while most polls show that americans support this bill stating it as such is lying by telling half truths. what 72% of all americans said was that this bill or any other did not have their support unless the border was completely secured before consideration of said bills. they were very clear upon further questioning that they were not talking about “triggers”. they meant the entire border was sealed to the naked eye, ie fencing of some sort before proceeding. not the wink and nod triggers of all prior bill dating from 1965. we are in this horrible situation because politicians simply refuse to close the border. how anyone of more than a double digit IQ would believe that this bill would close the border as written is delusional.
do you really want a/this bill to pass in a landslide?
—build a fence from stem to stern across the border grinding walk in illegal immigration to a halt.
—americans would then pass virtually any bill written as long as they know the “swarm” is over, once and for all.
all this other jib jab is excuse making and BS. the majority of americans are against this bill, not because of how it is written, but because they know from 40 years of experience the border enforcement issues will never be addressed.
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