John McCain can be an arrogant self-righteous jerk who has a problem controlling his temper. I do not think he should get the Republican nomination for President. As I discussed earlier on this blog, supporters of comprehensive reform have reason to be at least a little upset, but that did not excuse the “F you” he gave his colleague.

But with all of that said, when it comes to his concern about the Republican Party, I believe he is right, and he needs to be listened to. Why? Well, let’s look at CNN’s exit polling data from 2004 and 2006. There is one result that should jump out at everyone who compares the Hispanic vote. In 2004, the GOP got 44%. In 2006, it was 30% (I was in error to say it was 28% when I was on MacRanger’s show). That means the GOP lost just under a third of its Hispanic voters. It wasn’t just Hispanic voters, though. The GOP also lost ground among Asian-American voters as well (dropping from 44% to 37%).

But the hard line on immigration also failed to win over Independent voters. The GOP dropped from near parity in 2004 (48% to 49% for the Dems) to losing a 59-37 landslide in 2006. Moderate voters also departed the GOP, which collected a respectable 45% in 2004, but lost by a 60-38 margin in 2006.

Finally, the exit poll asked some questions on illegal immigration. People were asked how important the issue was. 30% said “extremely important” - and they went GOP by only a 52-46 margin. 32% said “very important”, and they only went GOP by a 50-48 margin. But those who do not think that it was either of those (37%) went for the Dems by almost 2-to-1. The exit poll also asked whether illegal immigrants should be offered legal status or be deported. Legal status won by a 57-38 margin. Now, we add two Republican primaries to the mix, each with over 55,000 voters turning out. The first was in the 3rd Congressional District of Utah, where Chris Cannon, a supporter of comprehensive reform along the lines of this compromise, was challenged by someone who opposed “amnesty”. The result: Chris Cannon won, 55.8% to 44.2%. In the 8th Congressional District of Arizona, Randy Graf won, but he netted only 42.2% of the vote - two moderates split most of the rest. Graf went on to lose the general election by a 54-42 margin - in a district that President Bush got 53% of the vote in during 2004. Jim Kolbe, a supporter of legislation like the compromise that the Senate is debating, won re-election with 61%.

Other conservatives who took a hard-line position - Rick Santorum, George Allen, and J.D. Hayworth among the most notable - also lost their elections in 2006. Folks, looking at the exit poll numbers, I have to conclude that John McCain may be right when he says he is worried that the GOP will alienate a lot of people by continuing to stick to a hard-line position.

Let’s be realistic. The status quo is unacceptable. Something is going to replace it eventually. Conservatives can come up with the solution in a reasonable manner, and look good doing so - or they can fight a battle that will involve a lot of scorched earth, burned bridges, and will only end up with Hispanic and Asian-American Republicans becoming as rare as African-American Republicans. That is where it is headed otherwise - at least as far as I can see it.